If you want to succeed in your business, you\u2019ll need to do more than simply respond to existing trends. You\u2019ll also need to figure out future developments today. Business planning for the future isn\u2019t optional if you want your business to succeed. In fact, it\u2019s imperative to strive for a proactive mindset and plan for the future.<\/p>\n
As the old saying goes, \u201cFailing to plan is planning to fail.\u201d That may not be literally true in every case. However, as a general rule, long-range planning helps keep your company\u2019s operations on track.<\/p>\n
For example, predictive marketing<\/a> can help you more readily convert prospects to customers by meeting those buyers where they\u2019re going to be in the future. Predictive SEO planning<\/a> helps content marketers boost their content creation efforts and generate more leads as well.<\/p>\n Yet, planning also takes a toll, no matter what the context. How are you supposed to know what future conditions may develop to alter the landscape and your carefully drawn plans?<\/p>\n That\u2019s where the futurist\u2019s capacity to forecast comes in, and fortunately, it\u2019s a skill anyone can develop.<\/p>\n A futurist is a kind of social scientist<\/a> who advises brands about the potential shape of the future. This may include trends, likely opportunities, and changes coming down the pike. The purpose is to help companies prepare to take advantage of the potential opportunities and avoid possible threats.<\/p>\n There\u2019s no superpower or psychic ability involved. Instead, forecasts are based on specific, drilled-down research and data to illuminate what\u2019s coming. It could be technological developments, for example, or environmental or legal shifts that can impact business plans\u200a\u2014\u200aor disrupt them entirely.<\/p>\n Futurists aren\u2019t psychics. They don\u2019t simply predict the future. Rather, they try to sketch out a variety of likely outcomes and developments, while also acknowledging the possible outlier events that can throw a curveball into your path and disrupt the most thorough preparations.<\/p>\n Futurists can work for themselves as freelancers or owners of their own consultancies, or they can work for governmental bodies, businesses, nonprofits or think tanks. They\u2019re skilled at recognizing and identifying trends<\/a>, as well as explaining the forces and contours of those trends and how they might affect business in general, specific industries, and life in general.<\/p>\n How do futurists actually create their forecasts? The essence of the process synthesizes historical data to create informed estimates about future trends. Yet, that\u2019s a broad description that encompasses some complex details.<\/p>\n Another part of forecasting involves seeing possibilities and identifying trends as they begin to emerge, instead of after they\u2019ve been established. That\u2019s relatively simple when there\u2019s a lot of base data on which to formulate a forecast but can get more complex when there are multiple unknown factors and a dearth of historical data.<\/p>\n For example, futurists use a method known as scenario analysis<\/a> to make an educated guess as to the future value of a portfolio, item or process over time, given certain assumed developments (i.e., a change in the global business environment, evolving market trends, rising interest rates, etc.). It\u2019s based heavily on the futurist\u2019s assumed factors and determinative elements and may rely on a computer simulation component. It can evaluate both the expected and the unlikely or \u201cworst-case\u201d conditions.<\/p>\n Futurists use many different types of forecasting models<\/a>, ranging in complexity that are best suited to various types of situations. There are four major types of models that are used for forecasting in different business contexts, including sales, product development, consumer behavior and more.<\/p>\n Forecasting for your business the way a futurist would is a skill almost anyone can learn and develop. After all, the foundation of successful forecasting is simply knowing which questions to ask and keeping an open enough mind to anticipate a wide range of possibilities.<\/p>\n You can learn to make unexpected connections between data or statistics and subject matter expertise, using creative leaps to connect them to your conclusions about the future\u200a\u2014\u200ano crystal ball required.<\/p>\n This is exactly what futurists do, but it\u2019s also what everyday brands do regularly in order to figure out future moves and decisions. The goal is to focus on foresight that might lead to insights that can fuel future\u200a\u2014\u200aand hopefully profitable\u200a\u2014\u200aactions.<\/p>\n It\u2019s broad, multidisciplinary, and nonlinear. It is micro, as it looks at very specific developments, and macro, as it puts the micro into the context of more global situations.<\/p>\n But it\u2019s not magic or crystal ball gazing. It\u2019s simply a more concentrated form of long-term thinking. No business can be successful without some level of this.<\/p>\n One of the biggest challenges for those new to forecasting is the tendency to close off to possibilities that lie at the fringe of personal experience or beyond. To be fair, it\u2019s hard to consider the probabilities behind an event that you\u2019ve never personally witnessed or lived through; we all tend to expect the expected.<\/p>\n Yet the ability to open up to all the various options for an outcome is crucial to forecasting. It isn\u2019t about making concrete, fixed predictions but rather about evaluating possibilities based on existing data. To combat this tendency to focus on the known quantities, don\u2019t shut down ideation or brainstorming too soon. Consider past experience, but also get in the habit of asking questions like \u201cWhat if \u2026.?\u201d and \u201cWhat next\u2026.?\u201d<\/p>\n What\u2019s evolving or beginning? Not just in your field but in tangentially related industries and even in unconnected contexts. You never know what might impact your business or field. Anything might serve as that hypothetical butterfly a continent away, flapping its wings and causing a hurricane for your company.<\/p>\n Explore available futurism resources and begin to create your own library of reference materials. To get started, try these sites and organizations:<\/p>\n The building blocks of forecasting are signals\u200a\u2014\u200aevents, occurrences and pieces of information that might offer an indication of emerging trends or developments. The key to successful forecasting is the ability to collect, curate and synthesize signals from many different types of sources.<\/p>\n To create your signal-input system, one of the simplest ways to begin is by collecting email newsletters. These are often staffed by subject-matter experts (SMEs) and highly experienced journalists.<\/p>\n Remember that scene from \u2018Working Girl\u2019 where Melanie Griffith explains to the potential business partners exactly how she came up with her profitable idea?<\/p>\n The key to her success in that moment was twofold:<\/p>\n Go beyond newsletters in your field or industry to subscribe to a variety of different general news, business, and finance newsletters as well. Be judicious in selecting your resources, since each will necessarily take up bandwidth in your busy day.<\/p>\n A few to try include:<\/p>\n Begin each morning by scanning your selected newsletters and making note of potential signals.<\/p>\n Another key skill in business forecasting is the ability to examine historical data in a new way. By looking for patterns and examining real-time data versus historical data, you hone your ability to identify potential inflection points, both past and present.<\/p>\n Take a close look through your company\u2019s accumulated data and any historical statistics you can access on your industry, niche, geographical market or other relevant segments. Try mentally plotting that historical data against known events or occurrences. This helps you pinpoint bellwether events and signals that you can keep an eye out for in the present to forecast the future.<\/p>\n Just like the Delphi model suggests, relying on a group of well-informed, focused experts can lead to superior ideation and creativity. Go beyond your own field, however. Curate an engaged community of other colleagues, freelancers, and entrepreneurs that can help you keep abreast of other perspectives and new developments in other fields. An educated, diverse, and engaged crowd of smart people is one of the most valuable business assets you can have.<\/p>\n Adopting a futurist\u2019s approach can help you craft more reliable, useful forecasts and inform more successful future plans for your company. Forecasting does take you out of the typical busy business owner\u2019s mindset, with its day-in and day-out focus on the here and now.<\/p>\n By embracing the broader, creative perspective of the futurist, you can help spot those valuable opportunities and threatening pitfalls before they take you by surprise.<\/p>\nWhat is a futurist?<\/h2>\n
What is forecasting?<\/h2>\n
Forecast models for your\u00a0business<\/h2>\n
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Learn to think like a\u00a0futurist<\/h2>\n
1. Nail the\u00a0mindset<\/h3>\n
2. Explore the possibilities<\/h3>\n
3. Look for new\u00a0signals<\/h3>\n
4. Evaluate online and print resources and\u00a0tools<\/h3>\n
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5. Create an input system for\u00a0signals<\/h3>\n
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6. Re-examine historical data in a new\u00a0light<\/h3>\n
7. Assemble your own council of\u00a0experts<\/h3>\n
Broaden your\u00a0horizons<\/h2>\n